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June has seen a dramatic rise in prices, which has followed on from a period of settled market prices. We have seen a 35% gain in gas prices and 22% in Power. What this means is prices are close to all-time highs once more, nearing levels we saw at the start of March.
The key drivers below have fundamentally changed the supply picture.
Following falling prices in April, May has seen a modest rise of around 5% in each commodity. The volatility in the markets is still present, but easing off from the heights we saw over March. Over the last three months, prices are relatively unchanged, with no long term trend in movement.
March was a record-breaking month, where we saw some record-breaking valuations at the beginning, and some extreme volatility. Prices did ease from the middle of the month, and overall gas and power prices are up over 10% each month to month.
February was a very volatile month, but thanks to a sell off on the last day of the month, wholesale prices are only moderately up, when we were looking at substantial rises.
Gas rose 12%, while Power around half that at 7% in the month of February.
After starting the month of January at the bottom of the festive dip, prices since rebounded, and consolidated towards the end of the month, resulting in a 36% rise for gas and a 21% rise in power prices. There have been a few main key events driving prices over the month:
December was an extremely volatile month, with new all time highs seen again, peaking on the 23rd December, and then dropping dramatically. Overall, despite the volatility, it was little change month to month, with gas down 3.2% and power up 3%…
We have seen a complete recovery in the energy markets from the losses that occurred in October. Prices now sit at near all-time highs again. The choice of this month’s cover image is no coincidence. We are in the eye of the storm of a global energy crisis in key markets, but could there be hope on the horizon?
October was a volatile month in wholesale prices, reaching a new record breaking peak at the start, before tailing off, and seeing a dramatic drop off right at the end of the month. Overall the markets were down 34% and 27% respectively on gas and power. The warmer weather has helped to suppress gas demand and has been a recurring driver in bringing prices down
It was an unprecedented month in September for wholesale energy prices, that will go down as a historical period in time. It is not a typo that gas prices moved 70% higher, and power just behind with 66% gains, both further extending the record
breaking valuations. There is plenty to go through, as to why September 2021.
August has been a mammoth month in wholesale price rises, with power up over 16% in value and gas seeing a near 20% rise in value. We last saw rises like this as recently as in June. Since the start of 2021 wholesale gas prices are up 142% while Power is up 93% in what has been a testing year in the markets. Here’s what happened over August:
Wholesale prices have seen another month of price gains with very strong increases being seen again, although less than the eye watering rises seen in June. Gas prices are up 12% while power prices are up 8%
Wholesale prices witnessed one of the most bullish months in June, with gas prices up a staggering 27% in just 30 days. Both power and gas prices now sit at fresh new highs with gas prices now easily eclipsing the peak seen in 2018 in what has been an
eventful month.
After a recent record high, the market has pulled back
slightly, and may trade sideways for a while in the short
term as bullish and bearish fundamentals balance each
other out.
Like the last monthly report, far more bullish factors
are driving the markets, than bearish ones. In the short
term, it is hard to see prices go any other way but
upwards.
Strong economic recovery projected over the long term
and demand projected to be fully back to pre-pandemic
levels in the summer, will encourage upwards prices.
With a roadmap out of lockdown proposed and wider
energy fuels picking up momentum, prices are likely to
rise short term.
Given the weather conditions forecasted in February, it is
likely to be a bullish month for prices and the volatility to
continue. Helped by a positive vaccine take up.
With Brexit concluded and the uncertainty over, the
vaccination campaign well underway and a cold Winter
outlook, the markets are likely to show strength and rise in
price.
More volatility is expected over the coming weeks due to the impending Brexit deadline, the COVID-19 vaccination roll-out and changing weather models.
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