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Nordstream 2 expected to remain offline until Q3-22 - 17-12-2021

The entire energy complex surged yesterday in an incredible day of events.

Firstly, EDF announced the unexpected shutdown of two reactors amid discovering faults at another plant. The reactors will stop until January the 23rd, removing 3GW from the grid. This resulted in one of the strongest rallies in the power market it has ever seen, similar to what we saw in September with the interconnector fire.

Fears of a cold and dry January in Europe are growing, and weather runs are showing the increasing likelihood of this. Germany is expected to experience a 4 week cold snap for the remainder of the year, which will see its dependency on storage reserves grow during this period, which is heavily depleted now at 61% on average across Europe.

Carbon EUA once more gained over 3 Euros in value to close at a near record high €85/t

Then we have the news from the German regulator BNA, who will not decide on the certification of Nord Stream 2 in the first half of 2022, ruling out any chance of supply to come online for this winter and spring when reserves will be at there lowest.

Finally, the USA are applying greater pressure on the EU to place sanctions against Russian banks and energy companies as Putin shows no signs of pulling back his amassing troops at the Ukrainian border.

2021 has been a year, where anything that could go wrong in the markets, has done so and we now sit at incredible valuations never before been seen. A difficult winter lies ahead. 2022 can’t get any worse, can it?…..